Tag: Barack Obama (page 27)

Real Clear Politics as of 10 pm ET:

• Votes with Michigan and Florida as cast: Hillary leads by Clinton 303,785.

• Votes with Michigan and Florida as cast and the cacus states estimates for WA, IA, ME and NV which didn't keep track: Hillary leads by 193,563.

• Votes with Florida and Michigan, with uncommitted in Michigan going to Obama: Hillary leads by 65,617.

• Obama is only ahead if you give him the uncommitted in Michigan and count the above caucus states, and then it's by 44,605.

More...

The Washington Post agrees it's true.

"17 million Americans have voted for Hillary Clinton...more than for any primary candidate in history" -- a statement that is entirely true.

Bill Burton, a spokesman for the Obama campaign, said that "both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have gotten more votes than any presidential campaign in primary history" but added: "We are, however, ahead in the popular vote now and will be ahead when all of the votes are counted Tuesday."

More....

Now that the DNC has recognized the Florida and Michigan primaries by agreeing to seat all of their delegates, the party has to recognize the popular votes in those states. The elections are no longer "illegitimate." Flawed, perhaps, but illegitimate, no.

The way I see it, the DNC cannot change the numbers of votes cast the way it did delegates. These were certified state elections with firm vote totals. Barack Obama removed himself voluntarily from the ballot. Hillary has to be allotted her votes, and he has to accept the consequences of his action, which is that he gets none of the popular vote in Michigan.

As a result, by any count, Hillary Clinton now leads in the popular vote. From Real Clear Politics:

CNN and others are breathlessly reporting Obama is resigning from Trinity Church.

Via Politico, the Pew Research Center has a new report, available here, finding 49% of white women and 35% of Democratic white women now have a negative perception of Obama. Politico summarizes:

Forty-nine percent of white women view Obama unfavorably, while only 43 percent hold a favorable opinion. In February, 36 percent of these women viewed Obama unfavorably, while 56 percent had a positive perception of the likely Democratic nominee.

Over the same period, Democratic white women’s negative view of Obama increased from 21 percent to 35 percent, while their positive view decreased from 72 percent to 60 percent — roughly the same rate as white women overall.

For men,

Via Suburban Guerilla and Reuters:

During a fund-raiser in Denver, Obama — a former constitutional law professor at the University of Chicago Law School — was asked what he hoped to accomplish during his first 100 days in office.

“I would call my attorney general in and review every single executive order issued by George Bush and overturn those laws or executive decisions that I feel violate the constitution,” said Obama.

He'll overturn laws? What about the separation of powers? How can a President overturn a law passed by Congress?

Presidents issue exective orders. It's Congress that passes and repeals laws. Our courts decide the constitutionality of laws passed by Congress.

[More...]

CNN is doing a big segment tonight on how Barack Obama won his first state senate seat by booting Alice Palmer from the ballot. (Article here.)Palmer now supports Hillary Clinton.

Shorter version: How did Obama win his first Senate seat? By challenging his opponents' right to be on the ballot and succeeding, so he could run unopposed.

I wrote about this in detail in April when Palmer campaigned for Hillary in Indiana. Here's the back story, from the Chicago Tribune: [More...]

The Washington Post analyzes Barack Obama's campaign from an issues standpoint and finds he breaks little new ground.

When Obama changed his mind and decided to run for president after only two years in the Senate, however, he effectively dismissed the importance of policy proposals, declaring in one speech in early 2007, "We've had plenty of plans, Democrats," and in another: "Every four years, somebody trots out a white paper, they post it on the Web." He cast his "new kind of politics" in terms of his ability to transcend divisions and his unique biography and offered few differences on issues from Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and the other Democratic presidential candidates.

His "new politics" mostly refers to tone and leadership style. I found this statement by a campaign aide quite telling:

Obama aides, however, say their approach will work because most voters are looking not for a new vision for expanding health care but rather for a reformed political system such as the one Obama calls for, one that would solve problems rather than resort to bickering.

I think a new vision for expanding health care is exactly what Democrats are looking for.

The Idaho primary was last night. In the Feb. 5, caucuses, Barack Obama won 79% of the vote to Hillary's 17%. A total of 21,224 Idahoans participated.

In last night's primary, Obama won 56% to 38%, with 42,000 voting.

Twice as many people voted in the primary as the caucus and Obama got 23% fewer votes.

The same thing happened in Nebraska, Washington and Texas, the other three states that have held both primaries and caucuses.

DaveOinSF at MyDD has a new graphic up showing the trends. [More...]

Barack Obama said today the nomination for President is effectively his to claim on Tuesday or Wednesday. I heard him say it on CNN, here is the Wall St. Journal:

Is the long Democratic primary finally over? Barack Obama says it will be on Tuesday. When asked by reporters if the general election begins on June 3, Obama gave a one-word answer: “Yes.” When asked if he will be the nominee, he said “I hope so. I believe so.”

So, to Obama, the one plus million voters in Puerto Rico, South Dakota and Montana are irrelevant to the outcome. He perpetuates the myth that the nomination is decided solely on the basis of pledged delegates when the superdelegates can consider pledged delegates merely as one factor, also considering the popular vote totals, electability and the electoral map.

There simply is no requirement that superdelegates vote by the pledged delegate total in their districts or state. Obama may not have 2035 or 2210 (or whatever number in between it turns out to be)in pledged delegates by Tuesday. [More...]

Bumped: Yesterday I presented a report by Peniel Cronin on the disparity between the caucuses and primaries this year. (The actual report is here, pdf.)

Today, it's time to examine pledged delegates and remind everyone that pledged delegates are only part of the equation in a superdelegate's decision who to vote for.

Superdelegates were intended to act as brakes on a system run amok. That's what we have here, and it will be further derailed if rumors about only seating half of Florida's delegates are true.

The pledged delegate total is one argument for nomination. It is not a qualifying event. By itself, a majority of pledged delegates is not enough to win the nomination. This year, in particular, the legitimacy of the pledged delegate count is uncertain.

Here is a second graphic and fact-filled, number crunching report (pdf). [More...]

Gallup has a new analysis out on Hillary Clinton's swing state advantage over Barack Obama.

In the 20 states where Hillary Clinton has claimed victory in the 2008 Democratic primary and caucus elections (winning the popular vote), she has led John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily trial heats for the general election over the past two weeks of Gallup Poll Daily tracking by 50% to 43%. In those same states, Barack Obama is about tied with McCain among national registered voters, 45% to 46%.

In contrast, in the 28 states and the District of Columbia where Obama has won a higher share of the popular vote against Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primaries and caucuses, there is essentially no difference in how Obama and Clinton each fare against McCain. Both Democrats are statistically tied with him for the fall election.

....All of this speaks to Sen. Clinton's claim that her primary-state victories over Obama indicate her potential superiority in the general election.

Superdelegates, are you listening?